Epicenter of the Economic Crisis in Europe 2011

Epicenter of the Economic Crisis in Europe 2011 - Centre of economic shocks or the epicenter of the crisis that caused the stock price indices in almost all exchanges slumped this time not from the United States, but also from Europe. People should not one take into account such things as the European capital market actually showed a tendency worse off.

"Now the epicenter is not in the United States but in Europe. It is many are unaware that many European capital markets are corrected since Monday (August 1, 2011) about 3-4 percent. That is mainly because the issue of debt crisis in Italy and Spain raised , "said economist Danareksa Research Institute, Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, in Jakarta.

According Purbaya, a new crisis in Europe is reflected in the United States (U.S.) on August 3, 2011 when the index had dropped 500 basis points. Incidentally the focus of mass media directed to the additional debt debate in the U.S. Congress so that developments in Europe neglected.

"In fact, U.S. economic fundamentals actually much better than Europe. Especially there are no signs of an economic slowdown in the U.S. until now. While in Europe, leading economic indicators (indicators that can predict economic conditions six months ahead) began to fall," he said.

If the condition continues, Europe is expected in October 2011 began to slow growth. It makes the threat of European crisis is greater than the U.S..

"Therefore, pay attention to Indonesia's exports to Europe. It allows for a contraction of economic growth to low levels. For example, economic growth in 2009 had touched the lowest level, namely 4.6 percent. So that I consider the worst scenario," said Purbaya.

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Now China is the Hope of the World

Now China is the Hope of the World - China became the world's only hope to push towards the international economic recovery. Two major world economic powers, the United States and Europe actually collapsed by the pressure of global financial crisis caused by their own act.

"This makes China become the most dominant country as a power house (powerhouse) of the world economy. Ditumpukan hope the world live in China," said economist Dradjad Hari Wibowo in Jakarta, Sunday, August 7, 2011.

According to Dradjad, the actual U.S. debt rating fell only slightly. So technically its impact on the U.S. economy is not great, say the impact on lending rates in the domestic U.S. market, as mortgage rates (property loans) or credit card interest.

However, since this first happened, on the other side of the economic recovery program hostage to political games in the House of Representatives and Congress, psychological factors related decline in the rankings will have greater impact.

Global market participants do not believe that the U.S. will overcome its deficit and gradually solve the problem of debts.

"The psychological impact of this that makes the downgrades will be a greater effect on U.S. domestic interest rates, inflation, sectoral growth, and fiscal stability. Fears about those things have dropped expectations of the global economy, let alone there has been no breakthrough means to solve debt problems Europe, "he said.

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Keep Food Supply for Inflation Press

Keep Food Supply for Inflation Press - Inflation in August it can rise sharply with the Eid al-Fitr which increases the number of requests. The large amount of money in circulation contribute to the rate of inflation.

Members of the House Commission XI Budimanta Arif asked the government to maintain the supply of food as a contributor to inflation, by applying strict regulations. This was done so that inflation does not rise sharply in August.

"Actually this has happened every year. Government should keep the inflation rate experienced in the month of Ramadan," Arif said here on Sunday, August 7, 2011.

Inflation in July was recorded at 0.67 percent. As for inflation from January-July 2011 reached 1.74 percent, while annual inflation (July 2010-July 2011) of 4.61 percent.

With a large contribution to inflation, food supplies must be ensured by strict regulations. Regulations that include setting and distribution of food commodities that have a major contribution as a driver of inflation.

"With the assurance of availability, it helps curb inflation. Speculator also will not try to profit by exploiting the situation," said Arif.

Previously, Director of Research and Monetary Policy Bank Indonesia Perry Warjiyo said that inflation in August is estimated a bit high. This relates to the month of Ramadan, which usually are characterized by somewhat higher inflation compared to the months usually.

"But we expect, will be lower than the month before Ramadan," said Perry.

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